Saints vs Falcons – Week 18 2021
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
30@20
NO BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 30, Atlanta Falcons 20.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 57%Our line: NO -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.180
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
40.6% (28)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 10. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ATL
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.3. The market has NO at -4.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 30, ATL 20. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -4.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 18, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 4.9 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.035 against ATL -0.180.
