Cowboys vs Eagles – Week 18 2021
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
51@26
DAL BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 51, Philadelphia Eagles 26.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 52%Our line: PHI -0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI +6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -0.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
47.0% (7)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DAL won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 25.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.5 points.
COLD GAME
31°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
31°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 0.5. The market has PHI at +6.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 51, PHI 26. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at +6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 18, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.3 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against PHI +0.059.
