2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ DEN – Week 18 2021
KC
DEN
KC
AWAY
28@24
KC +4
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 67%Projected margin: -7.6
KC
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
-7.6
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 4. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -600 | Won · +$0.19 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES