2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ MIA – Week 18 2021
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
24@33
MIA +9
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 55%Projected margin: -1.2
NE
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 10.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -250 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3SEASON PPR
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES