Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 18 2021
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
24@33
MIA BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 33.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 55%Our line: NE -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -1.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.031
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
48.4% (4)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes New England Patriots at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 1.7. The market has NE at -6.0.
Miami Dolphins won, NE 24, MIA 33. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -6.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 18, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 5.9 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against MIA -0.031.
