Colts vs Jaguars – Week 18 2021
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
11@26
JAX BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 11, Jacksonville Jaguars 26.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: IND 76%Our line: IND -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -9.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
44.3% (16)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 9.4, the model overestimated by 24.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 76% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project IND by 9.4. The market has IND at -14.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, IND 11, JAX 26. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -14.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 18, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 4.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.045 against JAX -0.206.
