IND @ JAX – Week 18 2021
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
11@26
JAX BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: IND 76%Our line: IND -9.4
IND
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-9.4
OUR LINE
-313
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.051Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.006Defense EPA / play+0.118
44.3%Offense success %44.0%
45.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 9.4, the model overestimated by 24.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -1000 | +650 |
| Our fair price | -313 | +313 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1 SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0 SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1811 yd · 18 TD
Nyheim Hines276 yd · 2 TD
Carson Wentz215 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman88 rec · 1082 yd · 6 TD
Zach Pascal38 rec · 384 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 76% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project IND by 9.4. The market has IND at -14.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 18 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.045 against JAX -0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
