2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ JAX – Week 18 2021
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
11@26
JAX +15
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER S
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 76%Projected margin: -12.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
-12.3
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 12.3 -- the model overestimated by 27.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1000 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES