2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ MIN – Week 18 2021
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
17@31
MIN +14
FINAL · WEEK 18
2021 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIN 53%Projected margin: 0.7
MIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 14. Off by 13.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -190 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8SEASON PPR
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES