Bears vs Vikings – Week 11 2025
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
19@17
CHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 19, Minnesota Vikings 17.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: CHI 61%Our line: CHI -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.061Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
45.8% (9)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 3.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs MIN
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 3.9. The market has CHI at +3.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 19, MIN 17. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at +3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.2 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CHI +0.061 against MIN -0.016.
