Commanders vs Dolphins – Week 11 2025
WAS
MIA
WAS
AWAY
13@16
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 13, Miami Dolphins 16.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Commanders, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 68%Our line: MIA -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
45.6% (10)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 3. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@WASW13 2023 | MIA 45, WAS 15 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.2. The market has MIA at -2.5.
Miami Dolphins won, WAS 13, MIA 16. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -2.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Washington Commanders were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 45, WAS 15 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: WAS -0.137 against MIA -0.105.
