WAS @ MIA – Week 11 2025
WAS
MIA
WAS
AWAY
13@16
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 68%Our line: MIA -6.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-209
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.017
+0.142Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.6%Offense success %41.9%
47.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 6.2. Actual: 3. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +209 | -209 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2 SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3 SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@WASW13 2023 | MIA 45, WAS 15 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.2. The market has MIA at -2.5.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 45, WAS 15 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: WAS -0.137 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
