Texans vs Titans – Week 11 2025
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
16@13
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 16, Tennessee Titans 13.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Texans, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: HOU 71%Our line: HOU -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.118Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
41.3% (28)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 3. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Our model takes Houston Texans at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project HOU by 7.5. The market has HOU at -5.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 16, TEN 13. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -5.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 11, the Houston Texans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 7.8 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against TEN -0.260.
