2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ TEN – Week 11 2025
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
16@13
HOU +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER A
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 71%Projected margin: -5.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES