HOU @ TEN – Week 11 2025
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
16@13
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 71%Our line: HOU -7.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.5
OUR LINE
-247
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.013Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.131Defense EPA / play+0.100
41.3%Offense success %37.4%
38.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 3. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -265 | +215 |
| Our fair price | -247 | +247 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2 SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5 SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project HOU by 7.5. The market has HOU at -5.5.
The model projects 45.3 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 11 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, TEN 0, HOU 26 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
