Texans vs Titans – Week 18 2024
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
23@14
HOU BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 23, Tennessee Titans 14.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 8 Titans.
Model confidence: HOU 66%Our line: HOU -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.015Net EPA / play-0.146
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (30)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.030 (21)
38.8% (31)Offense success %39.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 5.4. Actual: 9. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Our model takes Houston Texans at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 5.4. The market has HOU at +2.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 23, TEN 14. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at +2.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 18, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.4, 6.9 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.015 against TEN -0.146.
