2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ TEN – Week 18 2024
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
23@14
HOU +9
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 66%Projected margin: -3.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 9. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +120 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6SEASON PPR
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES