Jaguars vs Colts – Week 18 2024
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
23@26
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Indianapolis Colts 26.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 66%Our line: IND -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.149Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
41.5% (21)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 5.5. The market has IND at -3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, JAX 23, IND 26. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: JAX -0.149 against IND -0.061.
