Jaguars vs Colts – Week 17 2025
JAX
IND
JAX
AWAY
23@17
JAX BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Indianapolis Colts 17.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 8 Colts.
Model confidence: JAX 67%Our line: JAX -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.068
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
44.4% (15)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 5.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs IND
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 5.8. The market has JAX at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 23, IND 17. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.1 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, IND 19, JAX 36 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against IND +0.068.
