Eagles vs Bills – Week 17 2025
PHI
BUF
PHI
AWAY
13@12
PHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 17
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 13, Buffalo Bills 12.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 4 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.152
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
43.1% (20)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but PHI won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@PHIW12 2023 | BUF 34, PHI 37 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.8. The market has BUF at -3.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 13, BUF 12. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 2.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, BUF 34, PHI 37 in Week 12 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: PHI +0.105 against BUF +0.152.
