Bills vs Eagles – Week 12 2023
BUF
PHI
BUF
AWAY
34@37
PHI BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 34, Philadelphia Eagles 37.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 4 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 60%Our line: PHI -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.182Net EPA / play+0.005
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
49.0% (2)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 3.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@BUFW17 2025 | PHI 13, BUF 12 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.6. The market has PHI at -2.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, BUF 34, PHI 37. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -2.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 12, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 13, BUF 12 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against PHI +0.005.
