CLE @ DEN – Week 12 2023
CLE
DEN
CLE
AWAY
12@29
DEN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 61%Our line: CLE -3.7
CLE
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.141Offense EPA / play-0.058
-0.186Defense EPA / play+0.019
38.9%Offense success %42.1%
35.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 20.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 |
| Our fair price | -154 | +154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
47%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Joe Flacco1616 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Jerome Ford813 yd · 4 TD
Kareem Hunt411 yd · 9 TD
Pierre Strong291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper72 rec · 1250 yd · 5 TD
David Njoku81 rec · 882 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW13 2024 | CLE 32, DEN 41 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CLEW7 2021 | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.7. The market has CLE at +1.5.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, CLE 32, DEN 41 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against DEN -0.077.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
