2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ DEN – Week 12 2023
CLE
DEN
CLE
AWAY
12@29
DEN +17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 61%Projected margin: -2.2
CLE
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-2.2
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.2 -- the model overestimated by 19.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +105 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW13 2024 | CLE 32, DEN 41 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CLEW7 2021 | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES