Browns vs Broncos – Week 12 2023
CLE
DEN
CLE
AWAY
12@29
DEN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 12, Denver Broncos 29.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 61%Our line: CLE -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
38.9% (29)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 20.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@DENW13 2024 | CLE 32, DEN 41 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CLEW7 2021 | DEN 14, CLE 17 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DEN
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.7. The market has CLE at +1.5.
Denver Broncos won, CLE 12, DEN 29. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +1.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 12, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 8.1 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, CLE 32, DEN 41 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against DEN -0.077.
