2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NYJ – Week 12 2023
MIA
NYJ
MIA
AWAY
34@13
MIA +21
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 71%Projected margin: -5.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 21. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -500 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7SEASON PPR
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW14 2024 | NYJ 26, MIA 32 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES