Saints vs Falcons – Week 12 2023
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
15@24
ATL BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 15, Atlanta Falcons 24.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: NO 60%Our line: NO -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
42.1% (15)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ATL
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.3. The market has NO at -2.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, NO 15, ATL 24. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -2.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 12, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.6, 0.6 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against ATL -0.040.
