NO @ ATL – Week 12 2023
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
15@24
ATL BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: NO 60%Our line: NO -3.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-148
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.014Offense EPA / play-0.099
-0.100Defense EPA / play-0.059
42.1%Offense success %41.1%
39.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -148 | +148 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1 SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara694 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams306 yd · 1 TD
Kendre Miller156 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave87 rec · 1123 yd · 5 TD
Rashid Shaheed46 rec · 719 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 3.3. The market has NO at -2.0.
The model projects 42.6 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, NO 17, ATL 19 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against ATL -0.040.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
