2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ ATL – Week 12 2023
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
15@24
ATL +9
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 60%Projected margin: -1.2
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 10.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3SEASON PPR
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES