Panthers vs Titans – Week 12 2023
CAR
TEN
CAR
AWAY
10@17
TEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 10, Tennessee Titans 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Panthers, 2 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 64%Our line: TEN -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.200Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.177 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
+0.023 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
37.6% (31)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 4.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 4.8. The market has TEN at -3.5.
Tennessee Titans won, CAR 10, TEN 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -3.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Carolina Panthers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 8.7 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tennessee Titans: CAR -0.200 against TEN -0.055.
