CAR @ TEN – Week 12 2023
CAR
TEN
CAR
AWAY
10@17
TEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 64%Our line: TEN -4.8
TEN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-177
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.200Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.177Offense EPA / play-0.047
+0.023Defense EPA / play+0.007
37.6%Offense success %39.7%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 4.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +177 | -177 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0 SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5 SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
156.4 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Bryce Young2877 yd · 11 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Chuba Hubbard902 yd · 5 TD
Miles Sanders432 yd · 1 TD
Bryce Young253 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Adam Thielen103 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
DJ Chark35 rec · 525 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 4.8. The market has TEN at -3.5.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 36.0.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tennessee Titans: CAR -0.200 against TEN -0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
