49ers vs Seahawks – Week 12 2023
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
31@13
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 12
2023 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 31, Seattle Seahawks 13.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SF 64%Our line: SF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.255Net EPA / play-0.035
+0.174 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (11)
-0.082 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.051 (30)
51.1% (1)Offense success %43.9% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 18. Off by 13.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.8. The market has SF at -7.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 31, SEA 13. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -7.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 12, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2023 season, THU 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.255 against SEA -0.035.
