SF @ SEA – Week 5 2026
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
SEA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SEA 71%Projected margin: -5.6
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.150
+0.088Offense EPA / play+0.033
+0.070Defense EPA / play-0.117
48.3%Offense success %46.3%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA backed by epa edge at 71%.
EPA EDGE
SEA generates 0.033 EPA/play on offense. SF's defense allows 0.070. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
SEA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
Net-positive signal profile for SEA. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy2167 yd · 20 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
C.McCaffrey1202 yd · 10 TD
B.Robinson400 yd · 2 TD
B.Purdy147 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.McCaffrey102 rec · 924 yd · 7 TD
J.Jennings55 rec · 643 yd · 9 TD
G.Kittle57 rec · 628 yd · 7 TD
K.Bourne37 rec · 551 yd · 0 TD
VS
2,167PASSyds4,048
1,749RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW12 2026 | — | SEA | — |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Who is favored in San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks?
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.6. The market has SEA at -3.5.
When do the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks game?
Seattle Seahawks, 13-3 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the San Francisco 49ers or the Seattle Seahawks?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SF +0.018 against SEA +0.150.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
