49ers vs Seahawks – Week 5 2026
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
32@29
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 63%Our line: SEA -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.276Net EPA / play+0.060
+0.209 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (25)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.133 (2)
52.7% (1)Offense success %41.5% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but SF won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.3. The market has SEA at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 32, SEA 29. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -3.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.5 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 13, SF 3 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.276 against SEA +0.060.
