TB @ DAL – Week 5 2026
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DAL 60%Projected margin: -1.3
DAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-1.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.013Defense EPA / play+0.167
42.4%Offense success %46.6%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DAL is our C-tier play in TB @ DAL (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 60.3% confidence and projects DAL by 1.3. Market spread sits at DAL -3.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds4,552
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DAL
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.3. The market has DAL at -3.5.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Dallas Cowboys, 24-26 in Week 16 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.022 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
