Buccaneers vs Cowboys – Week 5 2026
TB
DAL
TB
AWAY
24@16
TB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 3 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 68%Our line: DAL -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.031Net EPA / play-0.066
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.127 (7)
-0.057 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.193 (32)
40.9% (23)Offense success %47.9% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but TB won. Projected margin was 6.5, the model overestimated by 14.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DALW16 2024 | TB 24, DAL 26 | TB | L |
| TB@DALW1 2022 | TB 19, DAL 3 | TB | W |
| DAL@TBW1 2021 | DAL 29, TB 31 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.5. The market has DAL at -9.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 24, DAL 16. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -9.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 1.2 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, TB 24, DAL 26 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -0.031 against DAL -0.066.
