Eagles vs Jaguars – Week 5 2026
PHI
JAX
PHI
AWAY
17@19
JAX BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Eagles, 2 Jaguars.
A midweek injury update moved the Jaguars from 73% to 74%.
Model confidence: JAX 74%Our line: JAX -8.7
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.196Net EPA / play+0.239
-0.127 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (6)
+0.069 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (3)
36.2% (31)Offense success %46.9% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 2. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PHIW9 2024 | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
| JAX@PHIW4 2022 | JAX 21, PHI 29 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project JAX by 8.7. The market has JAX at -7.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, PHI 17, JAX 19. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -7.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 4.1 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Philadelphia Eagles, JAX 23, PHI 28 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: PHI -0.196 against JAX +0.239.
