PHI @ JAX – Week 5 2026
PHI
JAX
PHI
AWAY
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
JAX
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: JAX 67%Projected margin: -4.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.105Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.026Offense EPA / play+0.030
-0.079Defense EPA / play-0.105
43.1%Offense success %44.4%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
JAX is our B-tier play in PHI @ JAX (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 67.3% confidence and projects JAX by 4.2. Market spread sits at JAX +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
A.Brown78 rec · 1003 yd · 7 TD
D.Goedert60 rec · 591 yd · 11 TD
S.Barkley37 rec · 273 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,224PASSyds4,007
1,905RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PHIW9 2024 | JAX 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
| JAX@PHIW4 2022 | JAX 21, PHI 29 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs JAX
Who is favored in Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 4.2. The market has JAX at +1.5.
When do the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Who won the last Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?
Philadelphia Eagles, 23-28 in Week 9 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Philadelphia Eagles or the Jacksonville Jaguars?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: PHI +0.105 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
