2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ PHI – Week 9 2024
JAX
PHI
JAX
AWAY
23@28
PHI +5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 70%Projected margin: 6.5
PHI
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 6.5. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PHIW4 2022 | JAX 21, PHI 29 | PHI | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES