Jaguars vs Eagles – Week 9 2024
JAX
PHI
JAX
AWAY
23@28
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Philadelphia Eagles 28.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jaguars, 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 70%Our line: PHI -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.149Net EPA / play+0.212
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
41.5% (21)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 7.1. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@JAXW5 2026 | PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX | W |
| JAX@PHIW4 2022 | JAX 21, PHI 29 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.1. The market has PHI at -7.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, JAX 23, PHI 28. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -7.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 9, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, PHI 17, JAX 19 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: JAX -0.149 against PHI +0.212.
