2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ BAL – Week 9 2024
DEN
BAL
DEN
AWAY
10@41
BAL +31
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: 3.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-9.0
SPREAD
3.9
PROJ MARGIN
-365
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 31. Off by 27.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -365 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -440 | Won · +$0.27 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BALW13 2022 | DEN 9, BAL 10 | BAL | W |
| BAL@DENW4 2021 | BAL 23, DEN 7 | BAL | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES