Broncos vs Ravens – Week 9 2024
DEN
BAL
DEN
AWAY
10@41
BAL BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 10, Baltimore Ravens 41.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -9.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.269
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
42.7% (17)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 31. Off by 25.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BALW13 2022 | DEN 9, BAL 10 | BAL | W |
| BAL@DENW4 2021 | BAL 23, DEN 7 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.8. The market has BAL at -9.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, DEN 10, BAL 41. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -9.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 9.0 points.
In Week 9, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, DEN 9, BAL 10 in Week 13 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: DEN +0.138 against BAL +0.269.
