2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ DEN – Week 4 2021
BAL
DEN
BAL
AWAY
23@7
BAL +16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 57%Projected margin: -3.3
BAL
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-3.3
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 16. Off by 12.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +107 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BALW9 2024 | DEN 10, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| DEN@BALW13 2022 | DEN 9, BAL 10 | BAL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES