Ravens vs Broncos – Week 4 2021
BAL
DEN
BAL
AWAY
23@7
BAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 23, Denver Broncos 7.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: BAL 57%Our line: BAL -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -2.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.065Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
46.4% (10)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.3. Actual: 16. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@BALW9 2024 | DEN 10, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| DEN@BALW13 2022 | DEN 9, BAL 10 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs DEN
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 2.3. The market has BAL at +1.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 23, DEN 7. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at +1.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.7 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, DEN 10, BAL 41 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: BAL -0.065 against DEN +0.004.
