2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ LAC – Week 4 2021
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
14@28
LAC +14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 51%Projected margin: -2.1
LV
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.1 -- the model overestimated by 16.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +144 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES