Buccaneers vs Patriots – Week 4 2021
TB
NE
TB
AWAY
19@17
TB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, New England Patriots 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: TB 57%Our line: TB -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.217Net EPA / play+0.135
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (11)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.066 (5)
49.4% (2)Offense success %48.4% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 2.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NE
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 2.6. The market has TB at -6.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 19, NE 17. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 4, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 2.0 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 28, TB 23 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against NE +0.135.
