2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NE – Week 4 2021
TB
NE
TB
AWAY
19@17
TB +2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 57%Projected margin: -4.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 4.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -255 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES