2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ CIN – Week 4 2021
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
21@24
CIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 64%Projected margin: 5.7
CIN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 5.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -373 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES