JAX @ CIN – Week 4 2021
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
21@24
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 64%Our line: CIN -4.9
CIN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.069
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.057
+0.118Defense EPA / play-0.012
44.0%Offense success %44.2%
47.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 4.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +313 | -373 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2 SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence3641 yd · 12 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson767 yd · 8 TD
Trevor Lawrence334 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde253 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones73 rec · 832 yd · 4 TD
Laviska Shenault Jr.63 rec · 619 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.9. The market has CIN at -7.5.
The model projects 49.2 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, JAX 27, CIN 31 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: JAX -0.206 against CIN +0.069.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
