Chiefs vs Eagles – Week 4 2021
KC
PHI
KC
AWAY
42@30
KC BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 42, Philadelphia Eagles 30.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: KC 64%Our line: KC -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.119Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
51.1% (1)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 12. Off by 7.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW2 2025 | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI | W |
| PHI@KCW11 2023 | PHI 21, KC 17 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs PHI
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.7. The market has KC at -7.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 42, PHI 30. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.4, 4.1 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 20, KC 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against PHI +0.059.
