KC @ PHI – Week 4 2021
KC
PHI
KC
AWAY
42@30
KC BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: KC 64%Our line: KC -4.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.119Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.144Offense EPA / play+0.070
+0.025Defense EPA / play+0.011
51.1%Offense success %46.9%
46.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 12. Off by 7.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | KC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -349 | +296 |
| Our fair price | -175 | +175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD KC -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for KC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7 SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5 SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
Patrick Mahomes4839 yd · 37 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Darrel Williams558 yd · 6 TD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire517 yd · 4 TD
Patrick Mahomes381 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill111 rec · 1239 yd · 9 TD
Travis Kelce92 rec · 1125 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@KCW2 2025 | PHI 20, KC 17 | PHI | W |
| PHI@KCW11 2023 | PHI 21, KC 17 | KC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.7. The market has KC at -7.5.
The model projects 49.4 combined points. The market total is 53.5.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 20, KC 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against PHI +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
