2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYG @ NO – Week 4 2021
NYG
NO
NYG
AWAY
27@21
NYG +6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 72%Projected margin: 8.8
NO
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
8.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but NYG won. Projected margin was 8.8 -- the model overestimated by 14.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -337 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
144.1SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@NOW5 2025 | NYG 14, NO 26 | NO | W |
| NO@NYGW14 2024 | NO 14, NYG 11 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW15 2023 | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES