2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ MIA – Week 4 2021
IND
MIA
IND
AWAY
27@17
IND +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 50%Projected margin: -0.1
IND
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 10. Off by 9.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6SEASON PPR
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES