Colts vs Dolphins – Week 4 2021
IND
MIA
IND
AWAY
27@17
IND BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 27, Miami Dolphins 17.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Colts, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.1
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND +0.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.031
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
44.3% (16)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 10. Off by 10.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs MIA
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.1. The market has IND at +2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 27, MIA 17. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +2.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Indianapolis Colts were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 5.5 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 8, IND 33 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.045 against MIA -0.031.
