IND @ MIA – Week 4 2021
IND
MIA
IND
AWAY
27@17
IND BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.1
IND
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.1
OUR LINE
+102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.031
+0.051Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.028
44.3%Offense success %41.3%
45.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 10. Off by 10.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +130 | -144 |
| Our fair price | +102 | -102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
373.1 SEASON PPR
Carson Wentz
QB
258.0 SEASON PPR
Michael Pittman
WR
238.6 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1811 yd · 18 TD
Nyheim Hines276 yd · 2 TD
Carson Wentz215 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman88 rec · 1082 yd · 6 TD
Zach Pascal38 rec · 384 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.1. The market has IND at +2.5.
The model projects 47.0 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 8, IND 33 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.045 against MIA -0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
