Browns vs Vikings – Week 4 2021
CLE
MIN
CLE
AWAY
14@7
CLE BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 14, Minnesota Vikings 7.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: CLE 55%Our line: CLE -1.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -1.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
43.9% (19)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 7. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CLEW5 2025 | MIN 21, CLE 17 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs MIN
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 1.8. The market has CLE at -1.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 14, MIN 7. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 5.6 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 21, CLE 17 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: CLE +0.012 against MIN +0.035.
