DET @ CHI – Week 4 2021
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
14@24
CHI BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 59%Our line: CHI -3.1
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play-0.127
-0.063Offense EPA / play-0.100
+0.098Defense EPA / play+0.026
42.0%Offense success %41.2%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 10. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +134 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 3.1. The market has CHI at -3.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Chicago Bears: DET -0.161 against CHI -0.127.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
