Lions vs Bears – Week 4 2021
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
14@24
CHI BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 14, Chicago Bears 24.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 59%Our line: CHI -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.161Net EPA / play-0.127
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.100 (29)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (21)
42.0% (22)Offense success %41.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 10. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 3.1. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Chicago Bears won, DET 14, CHI 24. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 5.6 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Chicago Bears: DET -0.161 against CHI -0.127.
