2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CHI – Week 4 2021
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
14@24
CHI +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CHI 59%Projected margin: 3.4
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 10. Off by 6.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES