2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CHI – Week 16 2024
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
34@17
DET +17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 78%Projected margin: -9.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-9.6
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 9.6. Actual: 17. Off by 7.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -340 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES