Lions vs Bears – Week 16 2024
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
34@17
DET BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 34, Chicago Bears 17.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -10.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.232Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.170 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.082 (26)
-0.062 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (14)
50.1% (1)Offense success %39.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.6. Actual: 17. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 10.6. The market has DET at -7.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 34, CHI 17. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 16, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 3.1 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.232 against CHI -0.088.
