Texans vs Chiefs – Week 16 2024
HOU
KC
HOU
AWAY
19@27
KC BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 19, Kansas City Chiefs 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.015Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
38.8% (31)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.5. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
COLD GAME
30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW14 2025 | HOU 20, KC 10 | HOU | W |
| KC@HOUW15 2022 | KC 30, HOU 24 | KC | W |
| HOU@KCW1 2020 | HOU 20, KC 34 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 8.5. The market has KC at -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, HOU 19, KC 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, KC 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: HOU +0.015 against KC +0.059.
