2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ HOU – Week 15 2022
KC
HOU
KC
AWAY
30@24
KC +6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 84%Projected margin: -12.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
-12.7
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 12.7. Actual: 6. Off by 6.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -755 | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW14 2025 | HOU 20, KC 10 | HOU | W |
| HOU@KCW16 2024 | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC | W |
| HOU@KCW1 2020 | HOU 20, KC 34 | KC | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES