Chiefs vs Texans – Week 15 2022
KC
HOU
KC
AWAY
30@24
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Houston Texans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Texans.
Model confidence: KC 84%Our line: KC -13.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -13.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
84%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.204Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.186 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.189 (32)
-0.019 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (17)
50.4% (1)Offense success %36.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 13.6. Actual: 6. Off by 7.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW14 2025 | HOU 20, KC 10 | HOU | W |
| HOU@KCW16 2024 | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC | W |
| HOU@KCW1 2020 | HOU 20, KC 34 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs HOU
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 13.6. The market has KC at -14.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 30, HOU 24. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 84% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -14.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 15, the Houston Texans were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.4, 0.9 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, KC 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.204 against HOU -0.192.
