2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ TB – Week 15 2022
CIN
TB
CIN
AWAY
34@23
CIN +11
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: CIN 61%Projected margin: -2.1
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 11. Off by 8.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -167 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES