Bengals vs Buccaneers – Week 15 2022
CIN
TB
CIN
AWAY
34@23
CIN BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bengals, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.125Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
47.3% (4)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 11. Off by 7.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@CINW1 2026 | TB 27, CIN 33 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs TB
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.9. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 34, TB 23. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 15, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, TB 27, CIN 33 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against TB -0.013.
