2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ LV – Week 15 2022
NE
LV
NE
AWAY
24@30
LV +6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 58%Projected margin: 0.6
LV
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 6. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -129 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES