Patriots vs Raiders – Week 15 2022
NE
LV
NE
AWAY
24@30
LV BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 24, Las Vegas Raiders 30.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 58%Our line: LV -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
40.9% (24)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 6. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW5 2026 | LV 17, NE 45 | NE | W |
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW6 2023 | NE 17, LV 21 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 2.6. The market has LV at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, NE 24, LV 30. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 15, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.3 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
New England Patriots, LV 17, NE 45 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against LV -0.064.
