Rams vs Packers – Week 15 2022
LA
GB
LA
AWAY
12@24
GB BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 12, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Rams, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.088 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
+0.017 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
41.0% (23)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 12. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
COLD GAME
15°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
15°F
WIND
4 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@LAW5 2024 | GB 24, LA 19 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW9 2023 | LA 3, GB 20 | GB | W |
| LA@GBW12 2021 | LA 28, GB 36 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.2. The market has GB at -8.0.
Green Bay Packers won, LA 12, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -8.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 15, the Los Angeles Rams were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.8 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 24, LA 19 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Green Bay Packers: LA -0.105 against GB -0.034.
