Falcons vs Saints – Week 15 2022
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
18@21
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 18, New Orleans Saints 21.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
45.5% (10)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.7. The market has NO at -5.0.
New Orleans Saints won, ATL 18, NO 21. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -5.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.0 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: ATL -0.075 against NO +0.018.
