2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NO – Week 15 2022
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
18@21
NO +3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 58%Projected margin: 2.0
NO
PICK SIDE
-5.0
SPREAD
2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 2.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -231 | Won · +$0.49 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
159.4SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES