Steelers vs Panthers – Week 15 2022
PIT
CAR
PIT
AWAY
24@16
PIT BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Carolina Panthers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 1 Panthers.
Model confidence: CAR 50%Our line: CAR +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.012Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.012 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
+0.024 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
45.1% (12)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2404 yd · 7 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson86 rec · 882 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 0.0. The market has CAR at -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 24, CAR 16. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 11.0 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.012 against CAR -0.037.
