2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CAR – Week 15 2022
PIT
CAR
PIT
AWAY
24@16
PIT +8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CAR
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CAR 50%Projected margin: 0.6
CAR
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -145 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
225.5SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
180.7SEASON PPR
George Pickens
WR
166.5SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES