Lions vs Jets – Week 15 2022
DET
NYJ
DET
AWAY
20@17
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 20, New York Jets 17.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.072 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
+0.078 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
45.6% (9)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@DETW3 2026 | NYJ 24, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NYJ
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.8. The market has DET at +2.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 20, NYJ 17. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at +2.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 15, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 0.9 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, NYJ 24, DET 31 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against NYJ -0.036.
