DET @ NYJ – Week 15 2022
DET
NYJ
DET
AWAY
20@17
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.8
DET
PICK SIDE
+2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-177
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.036
+0.072Offense EPA / play-0.087
+0.078Defense EPA / play-0.051
45.6%Offense success %39.0%
46.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +120 | -132 |
| Our fair price | -177 | +177 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET +2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.33
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3 SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6 SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff4438 yd · 29 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jamaal Williams1066 yd · 17 TD
D'Andre Swift542 yd · 5 TD
Justin Jackson170 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown106 rec · 1161 yd · 6 TD
Kalif Raymond47 rec · 616 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.8. The market has DET at +2.0.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 15 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against NYJ -0.036.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
