2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ ATL – Week 18 2025
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
17@19
ATL +2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 67%Projected margin: 3.7
ATL
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 3.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
| NO@ATLW12 2023 | NO 15, ATL 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES