2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NE – Week 18 2025
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
10@38
NE +28
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER A
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 72%Projected margin: 5.9
NE
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
5.9
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 28. Off by 22.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES