Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 18 2025
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
10@38
NE BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 10, New England Patriots 38.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 4 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 72%Our line: NE -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -7.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
41.9% (27)Offense success %48.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 28. Off by 20.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
COLD GAME
29°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
29°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NE by 7.7. The market has NE at -14.0.
New England Patriots won, MIA 10, NE 38. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -14.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 18, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 33, MIA 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: MIA -0.105 against NE +0.205.
