IND @ HOU – Week 18 2025
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
30@38
HOU BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 77%Our line: HOU -10.1
HOU
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.1
OUR LINE
-341
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.072Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.131
46.3%Offense success %41.3%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 10.1. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +400 | -535 |
| Our fair price | +341 | -341 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
77%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3 SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 10.1. The market has HOU at -9.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, IND 16 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: IND +0.068 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
