Colts vs Texans – Week 18 2025
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
30@38
HOU BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Houston Texans 38.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 77%Our line: HOU -10.1
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -10.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.072 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
+0.004 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
46.3% (8)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 10.1. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 10.1. The market has HOU at -9.5.
Houston Texans won, IND 30, HOU 38. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -9.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 18, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 8.7 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: IND +0.068 against HOU +0.118.
