IND @ HOU – Week 8 2024
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
20@23
HOU BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.1
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.050
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.065
40.2%Offense success %38.8%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +185 | -225 |
| Our fair price | +145 | -145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.1. The market has HOU at -5.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, IND 30, HOU 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: IND -0.061 against HOU +0.015.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
