2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ HOU – Week 8 2024
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
20@23
HOU +3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 59%Projected margin: 1.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.0
SPREAD
1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 1.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -225 | Won · +$0.49 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW2 2023 | IND 31, HOU 20 | HOU | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES