TEN @ DET – Week 8 2024
TEN
DET
TEN
AWAY
14@52
DET BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 79%Our line: DET -10.9
DET
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.9
OUR LINE
-378
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.146Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.170
+0.030Defense EPA / play-0.062
39.9%Offense success %50.1%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.9. Actual: 38. Off by 27.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +550 | -800 |
| Our fair price | +378 | -378 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
79%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7 SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2 SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
W.Levis2091 yd · 13 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1079 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears312 yd · 4 TD
W.Levis183 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Ridley64 rec · 1017 yd · 4 TD
N.Westbrook-Ikhine32 rec · 497 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@TENW15 2020 | DET 25, TEN 46 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 79% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 10.9. The market has DET at -12.5.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, DET 25, TEN 46 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: TEN -0.146 against DET +0.232.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
