Titans vs Lions – Week 8 2024
TEN
DET
TEN
AWAY
14@52
DET BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 14, Detroit Lions 52.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 79%Our line: DET -10.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -10.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.146Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
39.9% (29)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.9. Actual: 38. Off by 27.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@TENW15 2020 | DET 25, TEN 46 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 79% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 10.9. The market has DET at -12.5.
Detroit Lions won, TEN 14, DET 52. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 79% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -12.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 8, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 1.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, DET 25, TEN 46 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: TEN -0.146 against DET +0.232.
