Jets vs Patriots – Week 8 2024
NYJ
NE
NYJ
AWAY
22@25
NE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 22, New England Patriots 25.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jets, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NYJ 61%Our line: NYJ -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.153
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.083 (27)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (29)
42.6% (18)Offense success %42.4% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYJ but NE won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 6.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@NEW6 2026 | NYJ 19, NE 26 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NE
Our model takes New York Jets at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYJ by 3.8. The market has NYJ at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, NYJ 22, NE 25. Our model had favored New York Jets at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Jets at -7.0, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 8, the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.0, 2.0 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NYJ 19, NE 26 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.037 against NE -0.153.
