NYG @ PIT – Week 8 2024
NYG
PIT
NYG
AWAY
18@26
PIT BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 8
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 74%Our line: PIT -8.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.6
OUR LINE
-283
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.170Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.107Offense EPA / play-0.034
+0.063Defense EPA / play-0.018
40.5%Offense success %40.4%
45.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 8.6. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +220 | -270 |
| Our fair price | +283 | -283 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6 SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7 SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
182.3 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
D.Jones2070 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy839 yd · 5 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 4 TD
D.Jones265 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
M.Nabers109 rec · 1204 yd · 7 TD
W.Robinson93 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NYGW1 2020 | PIT 26, NYG 16 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.6. The market has PIT at -6.0.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 8 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 26, NYG 16 in Week 1 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: NYG -0.170 against PIT -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
