Steelers vs Giants – Week 1 2020
PIT
NYG
PIT
AWAY
26@16
PIT BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 26, New York Giants 16.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 55%Our line: PIT -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -1.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DIFFERENCE
-15%
| SOURCE | PIT | NYG | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -253 | +221 | 70.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.086
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.056 (27)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (16)
43.2% (25)Offense success %41.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 1.6. Actual: 10. Off by 8.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PITW8 2024 | NYG 18, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs NYG
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 1.6. The market has PIT at -6.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 26, NYG 16. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, MON 7:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, NYG 18, PIT 26 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against NYG -0.086.
